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Performative Bafflement's avatar

So a couple notes on the study:

1. Only considers adults in age band 36-40

2. Doing this definitionally excludes Zennials / gen after Millennials

3. I wanted to specifically see how they accounted for housing, and they're not really. They're looking at median incomes at each generation in the 36-40 age band, and seeing an overall rise in median income for each gen, although the increase is decreasing for each generation. Expenses really aren't taken into account. They use the PCE inflation measure, which theoretically includes a 17-18% component of "housing and energy," but how accurately this reflects the steep rise in housing and rent prices we saw 2018+ is anyone's guess. Because of their age band, even for the Millennial gen, they're only looking at 5 years out of 15, and specifically looking at Millennials born 1982-1986 only. How representative this slice is is probably up for debate, because a lot of those are of an age to have bought housing before the huge increases in house prices and rent post 2010.

4. The age band 36-40 seems oddly narrow to me, particularly when other papers like Chetty 2017 find clear declines in intergenerational mobility at the earlier age of 30. Here's their take on it: "They calculate in each year the share of adults aged 30 whose income exceeds that of their parents when their parents were around age 30. Whereas around 90 percent of 30-year olds born in the early 1940s had higher incomes than their parents at the same age, this was true for just over half of 30-year olds born in the early 1980s. This decline in absolute mobility is consistent with our finding of slowing intergenerational progress from the Silent Generation (born 1928–1945) through Generation X (born 1965–1980). But our results suggest that intergenerational progress is no longer slowing and may instead be picking up again for Millennials in their late 30s."

5. And indeed, if you look younger than 30: "First, we find that the higher household incomes of Millennials relative to Generation X, through their 20s, is a result of dependence on their parents rather than a rise in their own market incomes."

So like most "intergenerational mobility" papers, the data is mixed and highly dependent on specific choices like age band, inflation measure, and other choices, and doesn't really merit a strong conclusion either way, and is probably excluding huge increases in housing and college education costs post 2010, costs that materially affect younger generations, who even with higher "on the face of it" median incomes are facing significantly higher expenses.

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