Why are so many people skeptical of progress?

Despite the overwhelming evidence that our material standard-of-living is higher today than in any time in human history, many people are opposed to or skeptical of progress. Why?

The following is an excerpt from my book From Poverty to Progress: Understanding Humanity’s Greatest Achievement. It is part of a series of excerpts that I am publishing on Substack in sequential order. You can view the previous excerpt and the first excerpt from this book.

You can purchase discounted copies of my book at my website, or pay full prize at Amazon.

The Progress-Deniers Are Wrong

Today, a dominant portion of intellectuals in the West doubt that progress exists. They often put the word “progress” in quotes to detach themselves from the idea. Many claim that people are no better off today than they were decades ago. Or they claim that material progress has negative impacts on our soul and psyche that undo the material benefits of progress. Others point to inequality and environmental destruction as proof that progress does not exist.

In this book, I will show that the material standard of living of the bulk of mankind has improved dramatically, but first let me deal with the other claims.

Progress is entirely compatible with environmental destruction. It is also compatible with a healthier environment. Human progress and the natural environment are completely different concepts that are only tangentially related. In this book, I will not deal with the environment.

While there are many who claim that continuing environmental destruction will inevitably lead to the end of progress, the evidence in this book shows that it has not done so yet. And the numerous predictions of the end of progress made in the past have all proven false. Perhaps progress will end sometime in the future, but this in no way changes whether progress exists today or has existed in the recent past.

If you believe that protecting the environment is so important that we must give up on improving people’s material standard of living, then you will probably not get much from this book. If you believe that both are important, then read on.

Nor is inequality a valid argument against progress. It is entirely possible for a society to experience progress along with increasing inequality. It is also possible for a society to experience progress with greater equality. Just like environmental destruction, inequality is a completely separate topic from progress. As long as the vast majority benefit from progress, the fact that some people benefit more than others does not invalidate the fact that progress has occurred.

If you believe in equality of outcome so strongly that we should focus on tearing down the successful instead of building up the less fortunate, then you will not get much from this book. I will aim to show that progress has and will in the future help to uplift all classes in society within nations across the world.

Progress is also entirely compatible with bad events. The critics of progress are correct to say that wars, epidemics, famines, depressions, political disorder and other negative events have happened in recent years. They are incorrect in the assumption that the mere existence of these bad events undermines the possibility of progress. I will argue that there has been clear evidence of progress even while these other negative events have taken place.

Progress does not, and indeed cannot, eliminate all problems. Progress often enables us to adapt to problems or lessen their severity. Progress in one area often uncovers problems in other areas. Sometimes those problems are actually more severe than the original problem, and sometimes they are less severe. The more we solve problems, the more noticeable and inconvenient other problems become. This is all true, but, again, this does not mean that progress does not exist.

Progress is not the same as utopia. Indeed, I will argue that the quest for utopia undermines progress. Utopians compare society to an ideal that exists only in their brain. I compare societies with how they were previously and to other societies at the same time period. No matter how much of humanity experiences progress, problems will always exist. Utopia will never be achieved.

Progress is also compatible with entire nations or sub-national groups not being part of it. Certainly, there are communities, cities, regions and countries that have not taken part in progress. It will always be possible to drill down into the data to find examples of groups where progress has not taken place.

But identifying exceptions to the trend does not disprove the trend. More importantly, there have been many examples of populations who experienced no progress in the past suddenly being transformed within one generation. There is no reason to believe that any specific population will be locked out of progress forever.

Let me be clear that I am not endorsing consumerism. Purchasing a flashy new car, clothes or jewelry is not progress. Being able to make visual displays of social status is not a sign of progress. Flaunting social status has been part of human behavior for thousands of years. It will not make you happy or successful.

I am not arguing for consumerism, but I am arguing for materialism. It really does matter whether a person has a flush toilet, clean water, vaccinations, higher levels of education, literacy, access to books or the internet, means of transportation, and a house that protects them from the elements and gives them some personal space. It does matter whether someone can afford to pay for medical treatment that leads to a longer and healthier life. It does matter whether a person can purchase fresh fruit, vegetables and protein year-round. It does matter whether they have a reliable electric grid that powers lights, appliances, computers and cell phones. These things really matter to the quality of a person’s life.

I do not make the argument that all ramifications of progress lead to happiness. Rapid change can be disorienting, particularly for older people and those of certain personality types. Humans evolved to survive and reproduce in Hunter-Gatherer bands on the African savanna. Modern society, with all of its progress is not natural to mankind, so it requires adjustment. And many people find that adjustment uncomfortable.

However, I do argue that, as a whole, progress has led to increased levels of happiness. While some parts of progress may promote unhappiness, progress promotes happiness on the whole. Wealthier nations are happier than poorer nations. More affluent people within societies are happier than less affluent people in those same societies. And people living in societies that experience rapid material progress are happier than people living in similar societies that do not experience progress.

This book rarely deals with advances in science. While the gradual expansion of our understanding of our physical and biological world is an amazing achievement (and a clear sign of progress in itself), I will focus on material improvement in the standard of living for the masses. Science has played a role in that progress, but I do not believe that it is the driving force. Scientific advances are more typically the result of progress.

Nor do I deal with technological innovation for its own sake. A specific invention is only a part of progress if it actually increases the material standard of living of the masses. The same goes for institutional innovation. Both are part of progress, but not every innovation automatically leads to progress.

I am not a futurist who speculates about the great positive (or negative) impacts of conceivable innovations. I believe that humans are very good at predicting everything… except the future. Whenever I hear someone making a specific prediction about the distant future, I think that they are seriously overestimating the powers of the human brain to understand a complex reality.

I focus on the present and the past. That is complex enough for me.

I will not dwell on recent events. Progress is not about what happened today, this week, this month or even this year. Within these short timespans, random variations due to sudden events often overwhelm the long-term trend of progress. For this reason, I focus on decades, centuries and even millennia.

This book is not restricted to evaluating the trend in material standard of living of Americans and Western Europeans over the last 50 years. While the wealthiest nations are one part of the overall trend of progress, this book is about the entire world over centuries and even millennia. Which living generation of Westerners (Baby Boomers, Generation X, Millennials, etc.) has lived a better life is far less important than the fact that all of them are far better off materially than 99.999% of all humans who have ever lived.

If you are reading this book and are skeptical of my argument: good for you. Skepticism is essential for testing the validity of ideas. It is a foundation of knowledge, science and progress. You should not accept my claim just because I assert it boldly. Demand evidence.

But I do recommend asking yourself why you are skeptical of progress. Particularly if you are over the age of 40, examine the changes that have taken place during your lifetime. Imagine if the innovations that took place during your lifetime suddenly disappeared. I believe that, if you can get past nostalgia for how life was during your childhood, you will see enormous changes that have improved your life.

Be sure that your skepticism is not cynicism in disguise. Skepticism is healthy. Cynicism is toxic because it has already decided that things are bad regardless of the facts. Cynicism may not undermine progress, but it does undermine one’s ability to enjoy the benefits of the progress that surrounds us.

The next excerpt is here.

The above is an excerpt from my book From Poverty to Progress: Understanding Humanity’s Greatest Achievement. It is part of a series of excerpts that I am publishing on Substack in sequential order. You can view the previous excerpt and the first excerpt from this book.

You can purchase discounted copies of my book at my website, or pay full prize at Amazon.