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Swami's avatar

Your definition has many good things going for it, as you point out above. Here are my concerns, though…

1). Improved material standard of living could show an increase even as we become more miserable. Divorce rates skyrocketing, children raised without father figures, huge numbers of people living off handouts with no gainful occupation or skill, substantial increases in substance abuse and mental health issues, fear of crime, fear of terrorism or war, drops in trustworthiness, loneliness, inability to meet friends or romantic interests, drops in intelligence, and so forth. I could go on for hours, but the point should be obvious that it is possible to see increases in material standard of living and decreases in health, happiness, spiritual well being, emotional well being, and many other things that really matter. This gets increasingly likely as incomes go up. Yes, a person living off a dollar a day is likely greatly improved by going to $50k per year, but I am not sure it matters as much going up the next $50k, and less for every increase afterward. Your measure is simply inadequate, and in a way reminds me of the person looking for their keys under the street light. Easy isn’t necessarily best.

2. Progress isn’t just about a large group over a long time, it is about humanity in total. If we break it down to smaller groups we run into the problem of zero sum actions between groups. If the Romans see a long term increase in material living standards and the Carthaginian’s see a drop (or are just exterminated), this isn’t progress. It is external exploitation, which is as far from progress as we can get. Granted, it can be useful to look at measures of progress at smaller groupings, but only when also monitoring that the growth in some didn’t come at the expense of others. This leads into the response I still owe you on "Coordination" which is IMO an essential part of progress, and the piece most often derailing it (with coordination a broader term than the more obvious, but too limited, cooperation).

3. I would suggest that a better (albeit less measurable) definition is simply "The longer term flourishing of humanity." This certainly includes GDP, but it also includes longevity, health, wealth, measures of emotional well being, intelligence, compassion, trust, happiness, peace, freedom from crime, opportunity, equality of opportunity, self actualization, environmental quality, and so on. Although this lacks in ease of measurement, it gains in that people can apply their own values to the measure. And any measure that doesn’t match up to our (often differing) values is suspect.

One last point, at the risk of detailing the conversation, is that I have come to find that it is useful for everyone involved if I break progress down into two types. First, or Type 1 Progress is progress in function or Knowldge. This is what we see sometimes (not always) in evolution, and what we see in technology. Progress in function/Knowldge thus can apply beyond humans, and it isn’t rare in our history. However, T1 Progress does not necessarily lead to Type 2 which is progress in outcome or welfare or well being. This is extremely rare, with the only species wide version ever occurring in last 250 years or so.

The benefit of dividing the two types is that people see technological and scientific knowledge progressing everywhere, but it doesn’t necessarily lead to improved welfare due to Malthusian forces, negative side effects and zero sum interactions (WWII).

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Eugine Nier's avatar

> number of years schooling,

This is an input not an output. Anecdotally, high and possibly even middle school students in America from a century ago were better educated than college students today.

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