"The global trade system is a powerful incentive for political elites remaining in phase 3. If that global trade system were to fall or be seriously disrupted, political elites would shift back into phases 1 and 2."
Very relevant to our times where politics is now dominated by those calling for trade restrictions of all kinds and flavors. It began with tariffs, but has spread to import restrictions, and increasingly export restrictions, investment restrictions and the like.
The world is bifurcating into two economic, political, and technological orders. I can see some possible silver linings to this. For example, the US efforts to block EUV lithography machines from being sold to China are forcing the country to experiment with free electron lasers and other alternative pathways to manufacturing chips. The paths China takes may ultimately be better.
"The global trade system is a powerful incentive for political elites remaining in phase 3. If that global trade system were to fall or be seriously disrupted, political elites would shift back into phases 1 and 2."
Very relevant to our times where politics is now dominated by those calling for trade restrictions of all kinds and flavors. It began with tariffs, but has spread to import restrictions, and increasingly export restrictions, investment restrictions and the like.
The world is bifurcating into two economic, political, and technological orders. I can see some possible silver linings to this. For example, the US efforts to block EUV lithography machines from being sold to China are forcing the country to experiment with free electron lasers and other alternative pathways to manufacturing chips. The paths China takes may ultimately be better.