We need abundant, affordable and secure energy
We need abundant, affordable and secure energy
A Progress-based energy policy should be based on natural gas, nuclear and hydroelectric energy.
The following is an excerpt from my second book Promoting Progress: A Radical New Agenda to Create Abundance for All. You can order e-books at a discounted price at my website, or you can purchase for full price on Amazon.
Other books in my “From Poverty to Progress” book series:
See also my other posts on Energy:
In my first book, From Poverty to Progress, I made the case that widespread usage of fossil fuels is one of the Five Keys to Progress. This is just as true today as it was one hundred years ago. Unfortunately, our current energy policy forgets this essential fact.
By far the biggest current threat to maintaining progress in wealthy nations are Green energy policies that seek to phase out fossil fuels, nuclear power, and hydroelectric power in favor of renewable energy. These policies have been staggeringly expensive. The world has spent over $5 trillion in global climate finance since 2011, the vast majority of which has gone to Green energy projects, such as wind and solar.
This makes Green energy policies the single largest peace-time government project in world history. And with global climate finance increasing towards $1 trillion per year, these policies are going to get more and more expensive (Global Climate Initiative).
What is worse, these Green energy policies have not been very effective at accomplishing their own stated goals. Global fossil fuel consumption continues to climb, and Green energy policies have produced very negative side-effects on the world economy. I will go into more detail about why Green energy policies cannot work in the Cutting Global Carbon Emissions chapter, but for now, I will say that Green energy policies have:
Failed to reduce global carbon emissions and will likely probably never be able to do so.
Had virtually no effect on current or future temperatures.
Undermined economic growth in wealthy nations, particularly Europe.
Undermined the standard of living of the working class and poor in wealthy nations.
Undermined the ability of developing nations to experience economic growth.
Undermined the national security of Europe (and they will do the same to the United States in the near future).
Empowered Russia and China, two increasingly totalitarian powers.
Kept more viable energy policies off the public agenda.
Given all the enormous contributions that fossil fuels have made to progress over the last 200 years, these Green energy policies are reckless, to say the least.
A Progress-based Energy Policy
To maintain progress, we need an energy system that is abundant, affordable, and secure. While other energy sources can supplement their use, only the widespread use of fossil fuels enables such an energy system. Solar, wind, nuclear, and hydroelectric can each play a role, but only fossil fuels can do the heavy lifting.
Rather than dangerous Green policies that sacrifice human progress in the name of the environment, the West desperately needs a new energy policy that maintains progress while mitigating the negative consequences on the natural environment. If climate activists can overcome their prejudice against natural gas, nuclear, and hydroelectric power, there is a Progress-based energy policy that would boost human progress as well as mitigating the negative consequences to the natural environment. That energy policy can make energy abundant, affordable, and secure while also lowering global carbon emissions and pollution.
A Progress-based energy policy should focus on completing the as-yet-unfinished Third Energy Transition. It should consist of the following steps.
Construct an abundant, affordable, and secure electrical grid based on natural gas, nuclear power, and hydroelectric power. The exact blend will differ based on geography and local cost structure. In the United States, this will overwhelmingly mean natural gas, due to its huge cost advantage.
Phase out coal power, by far the worst offender in carbon emissions, pollution, and degrading health. Impose a coal tax on all goods mined, processed, transported, and manufactured using coal or electricity generated from coal. This will give the entire world a strong economic incentive to move off coal.
Roll back government restrictions on the exploration, drilling, and distribution of natural gas on public and private land.
Phase out all subsidies and mandates for renewable power. The focus should be on abundant, affordable, and secure energy sources. Renewable energy sources can act as a supplement where geography and economics allow, but natural gas, nuclear, and hydroelectric power will do the heavy lifting.
Leverage the technical skills of the American shale gas industry to spread the Shale Revolution throughout the world. This will make natural gas so affordable that the global energy sector wants to shift from coal to natural gas.
Gradually shift the transportation sector from petroleum to electricity, starting with transport within wealthy metro regions and then expanding to longer-range transportation.
Assist Asia and developing nations with the capital and technical skills required to gradually transition from coal and wood-burning to an electrical grid and industrial sector based upon a blend of natural gas, nuclear power, and hydroelectric power. Affordable and abundant natural gas is key to this transition.
Create innovation prizes for new energy sources that have all the advantages of fossil fuels and nuclear power, but without pollution, radiation, or carbon emissions.
This Progress-based energy policy will be more effective at lowering carbon emissions, pollution, and health risks than the Green energy policy, and it will do so at a much lower cost. More importantly, this Progress-based energy policy will build an abundant, affordable, and secure energy system that can power long-term economic growth.
This is not a hypothetical policy. Many nations have successfully transitioned their electrical grid away from coal to a blend of natural gas, nuclear, and hydroelectric. Unfortunately, while the media and political activists focus on Green policies in Europe, they have missed far more successful energy transitions based upon natural gas, nuclear, and hydroelectric.
Because energy is so critical to progress, the topic does not comfortably fit into a single chapter. For this reason, I will discuss my Progress-based energy policy in four separate chapters. In this chapter, I will explain energy policies to promote abundant, affordable, and secure energy in the short term in wealthy nations. Such an energy system is a cornerstone of promoting long-term economic growth.
In the Technological Innovation chapter, I will explain my proposal to establish innovation prizes to incentivize research on radical breakthrough energy technologies. If successful, this would probably be the greatest technological innovation of the 21st Century and do far more to lower global carbon emissions than current Green policies.
In the Energy for Developing Nations chapter, I will extend my Progress-based energy policy to include the needs of developing nations. To promote progress, all developing nations must build an abundant, affordable, and secure energy system.
In the Cutting Global Carbon Emissions chapter, I will explain how we can lower global carbon emissions while enabling developing nations to build their own abundant, affordable, and secure energy systems. While Green energy policies have failed abysmally at reducing global carbon emissions because they ignore the biggest contributors (Asian coal), my policy focuses on the most cost-effective means to reduce global carbon emissions while still maintaining progress.
Why Fossil Fuels Are Essential For Now
Fossil fuels are foundational to many of the technologies that make modern life possible. The railroad, marine diesel engines, steam turbines, automobiles, trucks, airplanes, electric motors, container ships, and the electrical grid are just a few of the thousands of industrial technologies that we take for granted today.
These fossil fuel-based technologies led to a standard of living for a typical person far beyond anything the richest men of the pre-Industrial era could imagine. Before the use of fossil fuels, economic growth and technological innovation mainly benefitted a very small portion of the world’s population. Today, to a large extent because of fossil fuels, economic growth and technological innovation benefit the vast majority of the world’s population.
Fossil fuels are critical to progress and economic growth because of their incredible energy density and the fact that they are affordable, easily stored and transported, reliable, controllable, and easy to scale to fit needs. And because of these characteristics, their geographical limitations are radically less than virtually all other energy sources.
All of these advantages explain why fossil fuels offered huge advantages over pre-Industrial energy sources such as human power, animal power, wind power, and water power. Human power and animal power require food, which was the critical constraint on traditional societies. Humans and animals need food to survive and reproduce, and they need far greater amounts of food to increase production beyond subsistence levels.
Before the Industrial Revolution, societies were caught in a “Catch-22” situation. You needed more energy and food to create progress, but the people and animals required to produce that energy required more energy to do so. This is why there was such a long delay between the invention of agriculture and the Industrial Revolution. Gradually, a few societies overcame those limits by increasing per capita food production and distributing the gains to productive cities.
In addition to being one of the Five Keys to Progress, fossil fuels are also critical for two of the other keys: highly productive agriculture and export industries. Fossil-fuel-powered tractors, synthetic fertilizers, and petroleum byproducts played a critical role in radically expanding agricultural productivity.
And while some export industries do not require high amounts of fossil fuel usage beyond electricity, these industries are dominated by rich nations. The kind of high-value-added sectors that enable developing nations to export fall largely in the manufacturing sector. Manufacturing is critically dependent upon affordable, controllable, and secure energy at a level that only fossil fuels can provide.
What About Other Energy Sources?
I do not claim that fossil fuels were the only energy source used by Industrial societies to power their progress in the past. Nuclear power and hydroelectric dams have provided a significant amount of electricity in the 20th Century, and they still do today. Unfortunately, their benefits are restricted to the production of electricity. This makes their application to industrial, commercial, and transportation sectors far more limited than fossil fuels.
In most circumstances, nuclear and hydroelectric are more expensive than fossil fuels and they take longer and are more expensive to construct. During construction, they also require substantial amounts of fossil fuels to power construction and transportation equipment, as well as the production of steel and other materials. Hydroelectric dams also require very specific geographic characteristics that most nations do not have in abundance.
Most importantly, neither energy source was important for any nation during or before their transition from poverty to progress. They only became important after they transitioned to progress. Thus widespread usage of fossil fuels is a Key to Progress, while nuclear power and hydroelectric dams are the results of progress. They are a useful supplement to fossil fuels, but they cannot entirely be substituted for them, particularly in the realm of transportation and industry.
Nor do I claim that we will never invent another energy source that has all the advantages of fossil fuels and none of their disadvantages. I believe that, as long as progress is maintained for the next century, it is very likely, perhaps inevitable, that we will do so. Later in this book, I will suggest policies that can help make it happen sooner.
Nor do I believe that solar, wind, and other non-hydro renewable energy sources cannot play a role in Industrial societies. Their use is rapidly increasing and their cost is rapidly declining. That is a good thing, and it is a result of the vast, decentralizing problem-solving network that is a modern society.
My claim is that solar and wind have made very little progress in replacing fossil fuels, nuclear or hydroelectric power, nor can they do so within the next one to three decades. Most likely solar, wind and other Green energy sources will never fully be able to replace those energy sources.
It is not a coincidence that the percentage of energy consumption made up of fossil fuels has hovered just above 80% for the last few decades. This is despite trillions of dollars of investments in renewable energy and constantly increasing global energy usage. Solar and wind are growing rapidly, but they are not replacing the use of fossil fuels to any significant extent. They are merely adding energy in addition to the current usage of fossil fuels. I believe that trend will continue for the next few decades.
Today virtually every mention of fossil fuels highlights the negative consequences of their use, particularly pollution and climate change. But it is important to realize that fossil fuels, despite their drawbacks, are a key foundation of progress. Quite simply, the modern world that we take for granted would not have been possible without fossil fuels.
Fossil fuels power innovation. Fossil fuels power economic growth. Fossil fuels power our education system, our transportation system, our communication system, our food production system, our health care system, and our military. Fossil fuels are key to generating all the wealth that pays for every government program we have. Before we try to eliminate fossil fuels, we need to make sure that we do not also eliminate all the benefits that have come from their use.
Quite simply, the prosperous world that we live in today would not have been possible without the widespread usage of fossil fuels. The Industrial Revolution in Britain might have been fueled by imported wood and charcoal, but it surely could not have spread to the rest of the world and lasted for centuries without fossil fuels. Without industrial technologies powered by fossil fuels, most nations would still be living at the same standard of living as they did in 1500: i.e. desperate poverty for virtually everyone but a few elites and a few lonely commercial cities.
Today the continued use of fossil fuels is under threat, particularly from those who are concerned about future climate change. Predicting the future is always hazardous, but I am extremely skeptical whether renewable energy can replace fossil fuels without drastically lowering humanity’s standard of living and undermining progress.
We need a system that generates the abundant, affordable, and secure energy that is the backbone of progress.
The next post in my series of posts on Energy explains Energy Transitions and argues that we need to complete the Third Energy Transition.
See also my other posts on Energy:
The above was an excerpt from my second book Promoting Progress: A Radical New Agenda to Create Abundance for All. You can order e-books at a discounted price at my website, or you can purchase for full price on Amazon.
Other books in my “From Poverty to Progress” book series: