Why the Allied generals chose Normandy for D-day

But was it the right decision?

Read the other articles in my series on Invasion Antwerp 1944 (an alternate military history):

1. Invasion Antwerp 1944 (intro article in the series)

2. Choosing a landing location for D-day 1944

3. Why the Allied generals chose Normandy for D-day (this article)

4. Why Antwerp was a better location for D-day than Normandy.

5. German defenses at Antwerp compared to Normandy

6. How the Allies could have assaulted Antwerp on D-day 1944.

7. How would the German army respond? (upcoming)

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One of the most important strategic decisions in the biggest war of the 20th Century was where US, British, and Canadian troops should land on D-day. In an earlier article in the series, I listed the key criteria used by Allied generals in selecting the beach. In this article, I will apply that list to Normandy versus other beaches (except Antwerp, which I will reserve for another article).

Possible landing locations

For the purposes of this article, I will use the following geographic categories. I am aware that the terminology is not perfect, but I tried to categorize chunks of coastline into a few categories. Note, that choosing a section of coastline is not the same as choosing the exact beach. That takes even further analysis.

• Normandy (roughly between the Somme river to Avromanche)

• Pas-de-Calais (roughly between the Somme river to Oostend)

• Brittany (roughly from St. Malo to St. Nazaire)

• Western coast of France (from St. Nazaire south)

• Southern coast of France

• German Atlantic coast

• Netherlands (excludes Zeeland, which is close to Antwerp)

• Norway

• Denmark

I will not discuss North Africa, Italy, or the Balkans in this article, although I briefly mentioned them in my intro article.

Air miles from air bases in England

This is a pretty simple calculation of the distance in a straight line from England to the potential region.

• Normandy PASS

• Pas-de-Calais PASS (Best)

• Brittany IFFY

• Western coast of France FAIL

• Southern coast of France FAIL

• German Atlantic coast FAIL (and very vulnerable to Luftwaffe)

• Netherlands IFFY

• Norway FAIL

• Denmark FAIL

Nautical miles from ports in England

This is based on the shortest sailing distance over the ocean from various ports in England and to a lesser extent Scotland to the potential region. I also take into account the vulnerability to ambush by German naval forces.

• Normandy PASS (Best due to the concentration of large ports on the southern coast of England)

• Pas-de-Calais PASS

• Brittany PASS

• Western coast of France IFFY

• Southern coast of France FAIL

• German Atlantic coast FAIL (and very vulnerable to German navy)

• Netherlands PASS

• Norway IFFY, but not very vulnerable to the German navy

• Denmark FAIL

Continental Ports

This encompasses mainly the overall size of the port and its ability to off-load and clear cargo from large ships. Keep in mind that one large port is far better than many smaller ports, as the smaller ports typically only allow small ships and have fewer storage and clearance facilities.

• Normandy IFFY (although Cherbourg is adequate for immediate needs)

• Pas-de-Calais IFFY

• Brittany PASS (particularly constructing an artificial port in Quiberon Bay)

• Western coast of France IFFY

• Southern coast of France PASS (Marseilles is the biggest French port by far)

• German Atlantic coast PASS (Hamburg and Bremerhaven)

• Netherlands PASS (Best because of Rotterdam)

• Norway FAIL

• Denmark FAIL

Beach characteristics

This is very complex as it includes many variables, and there are many beaches within each region. I believe that all regions listed had at least one adequate beach for amphibious landing, though obviously the number varies greatly. Regions with few beaches make it easy for German troops to concentrate there, while regions with many beaches force them to spread out.

Distance from Ruhr region

• Normandy IFFY (roughly 500 road miles as measured from Cherbourg)

• Pas-de-Calais PASS, but barely (roughly 210 road miles as measured from Dunkirk)

• Brittany FAIL (roughly 655 road miles as measured from Brest)

• Western coast of France FAIL (roughly 556 road miles as measured from Nantes)

• Southern coast of France FAIL (roughly 685 road miles as measured from Marseille)

• German Atlantic coast PASS (roughly 233 road miles as measured from Hamburg)

• Netherlands PASS (Best; roughly 124 road miles as measured from Rotterdam)

• Norway FAIL (start swimming!)

• Denmark IFFY (roughly 317 road miles as measured from Ording and easily blocked by Germans at the base of Jutland)

Known German defenses

This category is a little tricky, because the Allies did not have full information about German defenses, and the Germans could shift Panzer divisions within days or weeks. Below are the best numbers that I could find in the historical sources.

• Normandy FAIL (15 German divisions, including 8 static, 3 Infantry, 4 Panzer divisions plus one more in the interior; Even though the number of divisions is greater than Pas-de-Calais, I would consider it the second most heavily defended region because of the longer coastline and lesser fortifications)

• Pas-de-Calais FAIL (10 German divisions, including 7 Static divisions and 3 Infantry divisions; the most heavily defended region with a high concentration of fortifications)

• Brittany IFFY (8 German divisions, including 3 static, 3 Infantry and 2 Airborne)

• Western coast of France PASS (5 German divisions, including 3 static, 1 Infantry, and 1 Panzer plus another Panzer division in the interior)

• Southern coast of France FAIL (8 German divisions, including 4 static, 3 Infantry, and 1 Panzer. Note that by the actual amphibious assault of Southern France, most of these units had been redeployed)

• German Atlantic coast FAIL (not sure of exact German defenses, but its coastline was very heavily fortified, and the army would redeploy very fast in reaction to an invasion here)

• Netherlands PASS (Best only 3 Static divisions but the German army would redeploy very fast in reaction to an invasion here)

• Norway FAIL (12 German divisions; a major waste of German military resources)

• Denmark PASS (5 German divisions)

Terrain beyond the Beaches

• Normandy IFFY
  The Allies did not realize it until it was too late, but the bocage was perfect defensive terrain for the German army. This was a major failure of intelligence and the biggest reason why it took almost 2 months for the Allies to break out of Normandy.

• Pas-de-Calais PASS
  Northern France and Belgium were perfect terrain for an armored breakout and except for the Meuse river, there were few places for German defense.

• Brittany FAIL Brittany is a rocky peninsula;
  Germans could have rapidly formed a defensive perimeter at the base of the peninsula.

• Western coast of France FAIL
  Western France is good terrain for an armored breakout, but the Massif Central would have forced the Allied Armies to drive north to the easily defended Loire river valley.

• Southern coast of France FAIL
  The mountainous terrain would have forced the Allies to drive straight up the Rhone river valley. A relatively small number of German divisions could have built a multi-layered defense, just as they did in Italy.

• German Atlantic coast PASS
  Northern Germany was perfect terrain for an armored breakout

• Netherlands FAIL
  The combination of rivers and land under sea level that could easily be flooded by breaching dykes would have made breakout very difficult. Germans could easily have built a defensible line between Ijseelmejr and the Rhine river. Note that the coastline has changed since 1944.

• Norway FAIL
  Very mountainous terrain that is not even connected to Germany.

• Denmark IFFY
  Denmark itself is great terrain for an armored breakout, but Germans could easily have built a defense line at the base of Jutland.

And the winner is!

I am going to award 4 points for Pass (Best), 3 points for each Pass, 1 point for each Iffy, and 0 points for each Fail. The totals are:

1. Pas-de-Calais 14 points

2. Normandy 11 points

3. Netherlands 10 points

4. German Atlantic coast 9 points

5. Brittany 8 points

6. Western coast of France 5 points

7. Denmark 5 points

8. Southern coast of France 3 points

9. Norway 1 point.

Of course, my point awarding system is somewhat arbitrary, but it is a useful intellectual exercise. I am sure that many readers, even those with a strong knowledge of World War II, are surprised at how well Pas-de-Calais, the Netherlands, and the German Atlantic coast did in comparison to Normandy.

So why Normandy?

I think the reason that Allied generals selected Normandy over the other options was:

1. The Allied generals decided before General Rommel redeployed the German Panzer divisions to in or near Normandy. Unlike the German high command and Hitler, who were confident that the Allies would land at Pas-de-Calais, Rommel correctly predicted Normandy.

2. The Allied generals decided before General Rommel ordered major improvements to beach obstacles and fortifications in Normandy.

3. As I mentioned earlier, Allied intelligence completely missed the significance of the bocage in Normandy. They thought the region had similar terrain to the rest of Northern France and Belgium.

To make matters worse, if General Rommel had been allowed to concentrate his Panzer divisions near the Normandy coastline, D-day might have been a disaster. An immediate thrust against the Allied beachhead by multiple Panzer divisions would likely have made it impossible for the Allies to build supply dumps in the immediate interior. The beachhead would have been a chaotic mixture of firefights with limited ammunition and Allied supplies would have been vulnerable to V-2 strikes.

But what did the Allies think the Germans were thinking?

As I mentioned in the intro article, remember that the Germans had even more information than the Allies, and they could pivot much faster. In particular, the 9 feared Panzer divisions could be redeployed in days or weeks.

This made the Allied beach selection a bit of a game of “I know that he knows, but he knows that I know, so…. But then if he knows, that I know that I will do that, then I should ….” This is a bit of an unresolvable dilemma, but at some point, a decision had to be made.

So in the end, they chose Normandy. But was it the right choice?

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Read the other articles in my series on Invasion Antwerp 1944 (an alternate military history):

1. Invasion Antwerp 1944 (intro article in the series)

2. Choosing a landing location for D-day 1944

3. Why the Allied generals chose Normandy for D-day (this article)

4. Why Antwerp was a better location for D-day than Normandy.

5. German defenses at Antwerp compared to Normandy

6. How the Allies could have assaulted Antwerp on D-day 1944.

7. How would the German army respond? (upcoming)