The Left has hit an historic dead end
And they cannot get out of it without rethinking their core assumptions
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In my series of podcasts on ideology, I argue that ideologies are based on non-rational psychological impulses. The goal of those who invent and follow ideologies is to transform society. Many ideologues claim that they have unlocked the keys to doing so. Many also claim that their views are based on science, logic, and reason.
Because of the nature of ideologies, they are very attractive to people with certain psychological temperaments. Those supporters are fooled into thinking that their support is based on science, logic, reason, and an objective view of reality. In fact, the opposite is true.
Because of their very nature, all ideologies are destined to fail because they come into conflict with material reality. I believe that we are seeing this process unfold today with the ideologies of the Left.
See also my other articles and podcasts on Ideology:
Why Ideologies Threaten Progress (Part 1 of 3-part podcast series)
Why ideologies fail (podcast)
Descent into a man-made Hell: Understanding modern Totalitarianism
The Left has hit a historic dead-end (this article)
You might also be interested in reading my “From Poverty to Progress” book series:
This is not the first time that an extraordinarily influential ideology has collapsed due to its conflict with material reality. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, one of the two dominant ideologies on the Left, Communism, was finally forced to confront material reality.
Largely because of the inability of Communist ideals to create long-term economic growth, Communist regimes all across the world collapsed. Without economic and military subsidies from the Soviet Union, they simply could not endure.
Support for Communist parties across the world has almost been eliminated and all Communist regimes that still exist are either:
Trapped in desperate poverty (North Korea, Laos and Cuba), or
Following economic policies that more closely approximate capitalism (China and Vietnam).
I believe that the Center-Left hit a similar dead end in 2008. So that I am clear on my terms, by “Center-Left” I mean:
Social Democratic parties in Europe
Labor parties in the Anglo world
Democratic and Liberal parties in North America.
The economic recession made clear a fundamental contradiction within the ideologies of the Center-Left:
They claim to support the material interests of the working class, poor, and racial minorities.
Those groups benefit far more from long-term widely-shared economic growth than from government programs to redistribute income.
Those government programs rely on revenue generated by a capitalist economic order.
The policies of the Left, either intentionally or more typically unintentionally, undermine long-term economic growth.
In other words, the core assumptions of the Center-Left were based on non-rational psychological assumptions that conflict with material reality. It was inevitable that the Center-Left would eventually bump up against material reality.
They finally did so in the 2008 recession. Since then, the economies of most Western nations have had almost flat economic growth as measured by changes in per capita GDP. The United States is the only country that has been spared economic stagnation over the last 15 years.
Following the Communist path is not an option that is acceptable to voters in democratic societies, so the primary alternative on the Left has been eliminated. The combination of not viable ideological alternatives and stagnant economic growth has forced the Center-Left into a position where its supporters have to choose between:
Acknowledging the failure and rethinking their basic principles and methods.
I believe that fully embracing the concept of progress and the need to reshape policies around promoting long-term widely-shared economic growth is the only viable alternative.Embracing censorship, legal/social harassment of the opposition, or defacto ostracization of major parties on the Right as anti-democratic or racist.
This is increasingly the choice made by the Center-Left in the Western world. The result has been a wave of social media censorship and instances of harassment of opposition candidates.
If successful, this path leads to Totalitarianism (or perhaps what one might call a form of “soft” Totalitarianism). I am not claiming that the Center-Left wants that outcome. Only that it is the necessary outcome of this choice, if political opposition from the Right is overcome.Rejecting material reality and embracing the constant flamboyant display of “good intentions” in public without caring about results.
This is increasingly the choice made by the Woke, Greens, and other Leftists. If successful, this choice leads to either a Totalitarian regime or a meltdown of society where the worst psychological instincts of humanity are amplified and the best instincts are vilified.
I am here to tell you that choices #2 and #3 will inevitably fail because they do not embrace learning from results. The attempts to implement choices #2 and #3 will hurt, and likely kill, many people because that failure will generate intense political opposition. Without a peaceful means of overthrowing elites, many will choose violent opposition. Even if political opposition to “Soft” Totalitarianism is overcome, future regimes will confront the same problems as Communist regimes.
I encourage everyone who considers themselves to be Left-of-Center to take seriously the Progress-based perspective. I believe that it can achieve all of the achievable goals of the Left. It will also help you to achieve a calm and satisfying life by avoiding obsessing over unachievable objectives.
Evidence that the Left has hit a dead-end
Ever since World War II, the democratic Left was dominated by one large party. As late as the 1990s, that party, typically Social Democratic or Labor, regularly received well over 40% of the vote. In some two-party systems, they regularly got majorities. Particularly, in the United States, UK, Scandinavia, and Austria dominant Center-Left parties constructed the modern social welfare state in their nations. They could do so because of long-term economic growth, and in return, voters supported them in large numbers.
Since the 1990s there has been a long gradual decline in support for Social Democratic parties across Europe. Whereas they once received over 40% of the vote, it is now typically hovering in the twenties. Some of the lost votes have gone to the Greens and more radical Socialist parties, but most have gone to the parties of the Right.
Over the last few years, this long-term downward trend hit a crisis point. In virtually every European election over the last four years, the Right has won. This may be just another swing of the pendulum, but I do not think so. In nations where the Left is still holding onto power, they are typically extremely unpopular in the polls.
I cannot find a good chart that shows the overall electoral outcomes of European Social Democratic parties, but the following graphics should give you a good idea. Keep in mind that both of them exclude the even steeper decline over the last 5 years.
Yes, for each nation there are unique reasons for the decline, but when viewed as a whole, the overall trend cannot be explained away as anything other than a long secular decline.
Nor does looking at individual nations change the view. Here are a few specific examples from the largest nations.
United States - Predictions of enduring Democratic majorities seem long gone. Biden is very unpopular, he has no clear replacement, and identification with the Democratic party continues its long-term decline since 1965. When Independents are included, Democrats are now down to 28% support (although the Republicans are too).
Hatred and fear of Donald Trump seem to be the only thing keeping the Democratic Party competitive on the national level. Recent events are a great example of the Center-Left using censorship and harassment of the opposition as a political tool to stay in power.
A Republican win in the next election seems very likely. I will include more in a separate post.Canada - An even better example of the increasingly authoritarian nature of the Center-Left is Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party. For a few years, he seemed to defy backlash, but in 2023 his polling support has been in a free fall. A Conservative win in the next election seems very likely.
Japan - the Japanese Left is almost non-existent. The conservative Liberal Democratic party has dominated Japanese politics since 1958. And it is not clear that the opposition is actually a party of the Left.
Germany - the dramatic SPD-Green victory in the Sept 2021 election seemed to have finally brought down the long-dominant Christian Democratic party. For a while, this gave a glimmer of hope to the European Left.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine revealed fundamental problems with their foreign, military, and energy policies, and the support for the SPD, Greens, and Free Democrats has all tanked.
The German Right looks to be headed for a big win in the next election. The rise of the very conservative Alternative party has brought talk of banning them, another example of Center-Left repression.France - the once-dominant Communist party collapsed in the 1980s, and the Socialist party did so in 2017. The Center-Left “winner” looks about to do the same, as Macron is extremely unpopular, and it is not even clear what his party stands for. The very conservative National Front is the only French party that is en marche.
Italy - just as in France the once-dominant Communist and Socialist parties are defunct. Their replacement Democratic party is much weaker than the Italian Right. The surprise 2022 election victory of Georgia Melloni is one of the best examples of the triumph of the European Right. She is now the most popular leader in Europe!
United Kingdom - the Conservative party has dominated British politics since 1979. Since 2021, however, they seemed to have made one mistake after another and their polling support has been in a free fall. Labour looks ready to regain power, but I am skeptical that they will be able do any better than previous versions of the Labour party. Only time will tell if they buck the trend.
Here are a few more specific examples from historically dominant Social Democratic parties:
Sweden - In Sept 2022 the very conservative Sweden Democrats won a breakthrough election that led to the formation of a conservative coalition government. Until this election, this was another example of a major Party on the Right being de facto ostracized from governing. The once-dominant Social Democratic party had had its electoral support decline by one-third since 1994.
Norway - the once-dominant Social Democratic party is in a long-term decline that has cut their electoral support almost in half. The return of the conservative coalition to national power in the next election seems very likely.
Denmark - the once-dominant Social Democratic party has somewhat bucked their decline by embracing anti-immigration policies, but they were still forced to seek a coalition with the Right after the Nov 2022 elections. In the polls since then, they have lost a substantial amount of public support.
Finland (see below)
Austria - the once-dominant Social Democratic party has lost half its electoral support since 1990. The main leverage has been their ability to force the moderate-conservative People’s party to form a coalition. The rise of the very conservative Freedom party may make this impossible going forward. This is another example of a major Party on the Right being de facto ostracized from governing.
Though the Anglo world has to a large extent not experienced the same trends because of their two-party systems, that may be changing:
United States (already mentioned above)
Canada (already mentioned above)
United Kingdom (already mentioned above)
Australia - In a break with the overall trend, the Labor party beat the Liberal/National coalition who governed from 1996-2007 and 2013-2023. But their polling support has slipped substantially, so it is not clear this is long-term trend.
New Zealand (Oct 2023) - A potential breakthrough election as the conservative National party and the libertarian ACT party formed a coalition government. As recently as 2021 Labour looked unbeatable.
Nor has there been a reversal of the long-term decline of Social Democratic parties in 2023 elections:
Estonia (Mar 2023) - The libertarian/conservative Reform party maintained its dominance. The main opposition comes from parties further to the Right.
Bulgaria (April 2023) - The conservative GERB party continues to dominate. The once-powerful Socialist party has almost disappeared from the political scene.
Finland (April 2023) - The conservative National Coalition and the even more conservative Finns party won a near majority. This may signal a major shift in Finnish politics, as it has been dominated by the Social Democratic party since 1936.
Spain (May 2023) - In regional and local elections, the conservative People’s party won a resounding victory. The even more conservative Vox party is growing even faster. In national elections, the conservative parties narrowly failed to gain a majority. Since the election Socialist support has fallen even further.
Greece (May and June 2023) - On a second try, the conservative New Democracy won governing majorities.
France (Sept 2023) - In Senate elections, the conservative Republican party remains the biggest party.
Switzerland (Oct 2023) - The Swiss People’s party, the most conservative party, is by far the largest and continues to grow.
Poland (Oct 2023) - In an exception to the general trend, a center-left coalition won a victory over conservatives.
Netherlands (Nov 2023) - The very conservative PVV party and Geert Wilders transformed from being a political outcast to the largest party. The Dutch Left is struggling to survive and some form of conservative coalition looks likely.
The stunning win of the BBB Farmers party in the provincial and Senate elections cements the Right’s control of the Senate as well.Serbia (Dec 2023) - The conservative SNS coalition won a huge victory and almost achieved a majority of votes.
I could easily add in elections over the last five years, but it would get a little tedious. There has been an almost uninterrupted string of conservative election victories over that time.
What is the future of the European Left?
I generally do not like to try to predict the future, but I honestly see no way out for the European Left. With the government making up around or over 50% of the economy, and that economy being largely stagnant, they cannot increase government benefits. And it is not easy to see what they can do if their primary means of winning electoral support is no longer possible.
For a while, it looked as if the Greens were going to be replacing Social Democrats, but very high energy prices and the Russian invasion of Ukraine brought out the bankruptcy of their energy policies. My guess is that they will never get beyond 10% electoral support.
The same goes for Socialist parties to the left of the Social Democratic parties. Their electoral support will be largely confined to naive young college-educated voters who are frustrated with the failure of their own ideas. Most will age out of their beliefs.
Slow, long-term electoral decline seems inevitable for the European Left overall and most individual parties. They need to wake up to that reality, and embrace progress.
What will the European Right do with their power?
This is far less predictable. The fundamental problem is that the majority of voters have simultaneously rejected parties on the Left but also being unwilling to make cuts on social programs that they rely on. Any conservative government that makes big cuts to social programs will risk backlash, and they know it.
Perhaps the best solution for them is to deregulate and hope that this boosts economic growth. Then social programs can slowly become a smaller part of the economy as the private-sector grows. Even worse, the fertility rates are low and the percentage of elderly, who are completely dependent on government programs will keep growing.
Europe is in uncharted waters, and it is not clear that there is any way out in the short or medium term. The entire continent may become like Argentina - stagnant, bureaucratic, and politically unstable. Perhaps in a few generations, a follower of Javier Milei will get elected.
This all makes me very sad as I have been a Europhile my entire adult life.
See also my other articles and podcasts on Ideology:
Why Ideologies Threaten Progress (Part 1 of 3-part podcast series)
Why ideologies fail (podcast)
Descent into a man-made Hell: Understanding modern Totalitarianism
You might also be interested in reading my “From Poverty to Progress” book series:
Thanks for an excellent analysis of European political trends. We Americans tend to be intellectually insular, and our media do a terrible job of informing us of world affairs other than war coverage. Reading or watching media in Europe reveals a large contrast with American media, by taking a more international perspective.
Many of us have reluctantly abandoned our love affair with the left, and at least in the US, the current administration is so absorbed in ideology that it has wrought havoc in the real world. And the political inversion of the two parties is very slowly being realized by the public. Who would have predicted 10 or 20 years ago that the republicans would take on the mantle of advocating for working and middle class voters, while the democrats revile them as deplorables?
It will be interesting to see how this all plays out, if only we manage to survive the next year without a total fracturing of the country.
One issue is that for the most part since WWII the European (more generally Western) right has merely been following the left by about one or two decades. Thus even countries that were nominally dominated by the center-right have implemented the same agenda as the center left, just more slowly.