Evidence of progress
Progress is a fact, not an opinion, so why deny it?
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Material progress is a fact. I am sorry if you do not believe it, but that is just how it is (until someone can prove me wrong). Over the last few months, I have written quite a bit about evidence for the existence of human material progress. I wanted to collect all the evidence into one post, so it can be easily linked to.
Feel free to repost or cross-post.
What is Progress?
First I must define my terms. I believe that the most useful definition of progress is “the sustained improvement in the material standard of living of a large group of people over a long period of time.” In particular, I focus on changes to the standard of living that are rapid enough and sustained enough that one person could notice positive changes within their lifetime.
You can read more about my definition in my Manifesto for the Progress-based Perspective.
Evidence for the existence of progress
By any of dozens of metrics, we are better off materially than we have ever been in our history. If you do not believe me, then look at the metrics of economic growth, human development, freedom, slavery, poverty, agricultural production, literacy, diet, famines, sanitation, drinking water, life expectancy, neonatal mortality, disease, education, access to electricity, housing, and violence (to name just a few), and in virtually every nation. And there are plenty more in my book.
What Progress Is Not About
Just so we avoid confusion or obfuscation, I want to make sure that everyone understands what my concept of progress is not about:
A lack of bad events
A lack of problems
What happened today, this week, this month, or this year (one needs to focus on decades and centuries)
The United States and Western Europe (it is about the entire world)
The future (it is about the present and the past)
Every single nation, sub-national group, and individual enjoying the benefits of progress (there are always exceptions)
The environment (it is about humans)
Equality or Inequality
Utopia
Consumerism
Happiness (although I have given strong evidence that progress does lead to greater happiness)
A Few Deeper Dives
If you want more evidence for the existence of human material progress, you can read or listen to the following:
Long-term trends in per capita GDP (article; podcast; video)
Growth in per capita GDP (2012-2022) (article; podcast; video)
United Nations Human Development Index (article; podcast; video)
Does material progress lead to happiness? (article; podcast; video)
Book review: "Ten Global Trends Every Smart Person Should Know" by Bailey & Tupy (podcast/video)
more.
If you want more evidence for progress, I would also consult the online database Our World in Data. While not all the data shows a positive trend, the vast majority that roughly measure human material progress do.
Still Not Convinced?
If you are still not convinced, and you think that you have the evidence to prove me wrong, then I challenge you to a debate in the comment section of this linked article.
If you are still not convinced and yet are not willing to debate me rationally, then you need to seriously come to terms with why you believe what you believe.
Perhaps it is not good intentions…
With so much evidence of material progress, why do only 6% of Americans think the world is getting better?
I'd argue negativity bias is the only reason. Our attraction to negative narratives and talking points perpetuates pessimism far more intensively and for far longer than is justified by the facts.
Any other reasons I'm missing? Simple ignorance doesn't seem powerful enough to explain the depth of pessimism seen.
GDP per capita, for all of its flaws as a measurement tool, is still remarkable to look at. Plotting GDP per capita, we see the graph go almost vertical as after 1800 after milenia of stagnation.
We are already living in the singularity, we just don't realize it yet.