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" ... I tend to think that he has been capture by a business modal based on predicting doom and then selling advice to businesses as to how to cope with that knowledge. Sometimes I get the feeling that he does not actually believe what he is saying. But there is very real societal value in someone who can predict big problems before others can see them, even if it leads to exaggeration." I have the same sense about him.

Another Substack where connecting the dots is done very well is https://www.lorenzofromoz.net/ . Lorenzo Warby is Australian and that gives him a different perspective than US or European analysts. He has great and deep reading/background in history, economics, and is well read on world and US politics. I came across his insights back in 2007 to 2011 timeframe. He then dropped off my (and internet) radar until two years ago.

He sees connections others don't seem to find. But his focus is also more short-term analyses than long-term projections. He also emphasizes that our cultural and social solutions usually have a derivation from biological/evolutionary baselines.

ssri's avatar

Morning, I won't be able to review this until at least the weekend, but I just came across a video by the geopolitics analyst Peter Zeihan that may have at least indirect relevance to this or similar posts:

Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap || Peter Zeihan [6 minutes]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAAxdIwZAXs

Some people say Zeihan's analyses should be treated with a grain of salt, especially as to his economic projections, so caveat emptor :-)

Core of this video is that as a given population gains increased progress, they need to ensure their demographics helps ensure there is a follow-on generation available and able to continue realizing those benefits. Supposition is that nations such as Korea, Europe, and perhaps US are facing demographic positions that do not favor continuing the prosperity we currently enjoy.

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